Here is my thought process on who I am voting for and why. I use numerical values to show what is important to me and by how much. It should also be noted that these are my views today, tomorrow they may change.
Barack Obama
Economic Instincts: Obama strikes me as an overall open minded person on economics. He seems much more willing to trust his economic advisors and is open to different economic points of view.
This shows, for example, in his pick of economic advisor’s. Austan Goolsbee is a top notch economist in the University of Chicago mold. The same can be said of many others on Obama’s economic team - in other words, you can tell that Obama put alot of thought in who should be his advisor’s, and listens to them carefully. +10 Points
Economic Ideology: Because Obama is a democrat, you can expect pressure on him to pursue many misguided policies. Whether we are talking about free trade, unions, or more government healthcare, his party will pressure him hard to deliver. - 8 Points
In any other political environment, this alone could cancel out his positive economic instincts above but because we are likely headed into a recession and the debt from the financial bailout is likely to significantly add to an already out of control budget deficit, Obama will be severely limited in the liberal policies he wants to accomplish, especially in the healthcare area. So this further constrains his economic ideologies push and limits any far reaching program Obama may want to adopt. +5 Points
Minority Issues: I think electing a black president will send a strong signal to minorities that racism really isn’t what it used to be. In other words, one of the side effects of electing Obama to the presidency will be in furthering the conservative argument, namely, that racism plays a low roll in minority poverty, see here, here, here and here. In addition, I think Obama is more able to get the message out that the US is the land of opportunity and that so long as you remain committed and focused, you too can escape poverty, see here. +12 Points
Message To Republicans: Whether we are talking about corruption, fiscal irresponsibility, or just arrogance, it is clear that the Republicans in office did not live up to the ideals they claim to hold dear. Removing them from office sends a strong message that the citizenry will not tolerate this and will - hopefully - bring the Republican party back to its original roots. +5 Points
Joe Biden: Many things rub me the wrong way regarding Joe Biden and the thought that he may one day become president really bothers me. - 5 Points
Hillary Clinton: Many things rub me the wrong way regarding Hillary Clinton and the thought that she may one day have become president really bothered me. Obama removed that threat, and I feel some obligation to thank him for that. In addition, the election of him to the presidency almost guarantees that she will never become president. + 5 Points
John McCain
Education: John McCain seems much more likely to do something positive regarding education. He has publicly admitted to supporting vouchers, and his education philosophy is centered around what is most likely to have a real impact on education: competition and choice.
This is no small matter either, as education is the ticket out of poverty and the area where policy can have the most dramatic effect on minorities living in bad neighborhoods. +12 Points
Judges: Given that the oldest judges on the Supreme Court are liberal, with the oldest being 88, the chances that the next president of the United States will pick a judge are almost certain. McCain is much more likely to pick a justice that does not believe in pushing her/his moral views down the throats of voters. A judge that believes that moral issues should be settled by the democratic process, as opposed to judicial fiat by unelected justices. Given the critical make up of the court, just one liberal justice replaced by even a moderately conservative justice can dramatically change the future opinions for years to come - long after Obama or McCain have left the presidency. +12 Points
However, given McCain’s maverick streak, his reluctance to support Alito, and more importantly, his support of the McCain-Feingold Campaign Reform Act that, IMHO, reduces the civil liberties of the citizens (see here, here and here), leads me to believe that McCain will pick a justice who is either moderate, or at the least dubious on civil liberty issues. At the very least, he will want a justice that supports his campaign reform act, which would likely be a candidate that ranks overall civil liberties low. - 6 Points
Divided Government: There is something to the argument that a divided government is a better government. Electing Obama will give too much power to one political party. We learned this when Republicans were in power and will, I am sure, learn it again when Democrats have the same power. +5 Points
Sarah Palin: I really like McCain’s pick for VP. As I argued here, based on her income, background, and life experiences, IMHO, I believe Sarah Palin to be the closest candidate to “everyday people” than any other presidential candidate in my lifetime. If she were to become VP, and maybe one day President, I believe she has a real chance of reforming the Republican party and bringing it closer to its roots of middle class and everyday working people, bringing a further divide from the elitism of the Democratic party. +5 Points
Economic Instincts: McCain seems an overall populist on economics and when you mix that in with his stubbornness and maverick image, you get a dangerous mix. Whether we are talking about Pharmaceutical drugs, regulations, or tax cuts, McCain strikes me as someone that when he makes up his mind on something, he will pursue it, no matter what his economic advisor’s tell him. - 10 Points
Economic Ideology: Though because McCain is a Republican and his Republican party is generally the more pro-growth party, you can expect this to be a check on his tendencies. Though, as the Bush presidency showed with the Medicare benefit for prescription drugs, I wouldn’t put too much weight on this check. + 3 Points
Free Trade: Though I don’t think Obama’s advisor’s will let him be much of a threat to free trade, I do think that on this important issue, McCain has the slight advantage. +1 Point
Health Care Reform: As Obama’s economic advisor’s have admitted before becoming Obama’s economic advisors (see more here, here and here), McCain’s proposal to break the link between employer and health insurance is a good one. More on why here. + 3 Points
Issues that are a wash between the two candidates:
Immigration: I don’t think there is a big difference between the candidates on immigration. McCain’s political party may push him towards anti-immigration but McCain, as was shown in the primary race, is not too malleable on this issue. In addition, though I see Obama as overall in favor of immigration, his ties to black America may also push him to favor some anti-immigration policies (remember, poor blacks are the biggest losers of all when it comes to more immigration). Though I don’t see this as very likely, it atleast cancels the risk that McCain will move towards anti-immigration as well.
Foreign Policy: On the one hand, McCain seems much more likely to do what it takes to make Democracy succeed in Iraq but seems like much more of a hawk than I’d like. On the other hand, Obama seems knowledgeable enough on foreign policy and, contrary to what many may think, strikes me as someone who will be pragmatic on foreign policy issues and Iraq in general (he already has distanced himself from the loony left).
As you can see by the numbers, the election remains close.
Some decent points. Lots we could talk about here. Let me start though with Sarah Palin. You want someone close to “everyday people.” Really? Everyday people aren’t all that well informed, and neither is Sarah Palin. Does that concern you? Here’s a quick question and answer from her with Couric. You want her a heartbeat away?
COURIC: Why isn’t it better, Governor Palin, to spend $700 billion helping middle-class families who are struggling with health care, housing, gas and groceries? Allow them to spend more, and put more money into the economy, instead of helping these big financial institutions that played a role in creating this mess?
PALIN: That’s why I say I, like every American I’m speaking with, we’re ill about this position that we have been put in. Where it is the taxpayers looking to bail out. But ultimately, what the bailout does is help those who are concerned about the health care reform that is needed to help shore up our economy. Um, helping, oh, it’s got to be about job creation, too. Shoring up our economy, and putting it back on the right track. So health care reform and reducing taxes and reining in spending has got to accompany tax reductions, and tax relief for Americans, and trade — we have got to see trade as opportunity, not as, uh, competitive, um, scary thing, but one in five jobs created in the trade sector today. We’ve got to look at that as more opportunity. All of those things under the umbrella of job creation.
Well, I think that to give 12 points to Barack Obama for the mere fact that he is a black man is way over the top. It seems like you are applying a strong dose of Affirmative Action here. The media seems to believe as you do, that Obama deserves the Presidency just because he is black. I totally disagree. So, in essence I think he is getting a free ride due to his skin color. Whatever happened to being judged by the content of character? You claim to be a conservative, but, at least on this post, you are certainly not behaving like one.
I agree with much of this. My principal objection is simply that I think that “Message to Republicans” should translate into about -200 points for McCain.
What the Republican Party has become in the last eight years is truly remarkable - and not in a good way.
1. Civil Liberties
It is simply beyond my comprehension how so many Americans seem blissfully unaware that for years Republicans argued that an American citizen can be arrested on American soil, detained without charges, and jailed indefinitely, without access to lawyers or courts. Thank God for the ACLU.
2. Unnecessary War
And now those same Republicans want to attack Iran (or is it Venezuela now?)
3. Fiscal irresponsibility
Has anyone else noticed that the Republicans (like Bush) who are proposing these expensive bailouts, are making no effort at all to raise the tax base needed to pay for them? None of them are proposing new taxes, or the repeal of the Bush tax cuts, are they? Spend, spend, spend. These guys are more fiscally irresponsible than any Democratic Administration has ever been. And that is not hyperbole.
4. Torture
I never thought I would see the day when you were not considered a “good Conservative” unless you endorsed torture.
5. Us vs. Them Mentality
To hear some of these Republicans (not McCain, I hasten to add) all of the world’s problems can be traced to homosexuals, immigrants, Muslims, etc.
Amen to that, LawrenceB.
Jon,
Granted - Sarah Palin does not know much foreign policy, economics, or policy. I am not going to argue that she does.
What I am going to argue is that what is important, atleast to me, is not necessary raw knowledge of those things but instincts, values, and moral perceptions, and on that, I do trust an everyday joe much more than some intellectual or elite anyday.
Remember, as VP she really doesn’t need to know policy inside and out, she will be surrounded by foreign policy experts, economic experts, and policy experts. She can ask the economists, for example, the trade offs between policy A and policy B and they will give her more than she ever needed to know herself. And yes, there is a greater chance that McCain will die in office but I give him atleast a few more years, long enough for her to have learned what she needed to know.
Obama made some very serious mistakes early on in the primaries but has learned throughout the months and months of campaigning. I expect Sarah Palin to be no different - except that, I trust her instincts much more than I trust Joe Biden’s or even Obama’s.
In addition, I believe Sarah Palin, if elected, could be a powerful force at transforming the Republican party and bringing it back to its core roots. She did it in Alaska…I think she could have a large effect in DC.
Luis,
Very good point. I’ve thought about that but there really is no way around it. His color does matter and the argument John McWhorter makes here is a powerful argument - especially for someone like myself who claims culture and perceptions are the primary reasons for minority poverty.
How could I, on the one hand, claim that culture is of primary importance and yet, on the other hand, give no weight to Obama - because he is black - dramatically transforming said cultural perceptions for the positive if he was to be elected?
Do you disagree with my conclusion, or just that color is involved?
LaurenceB,
Yes, but on many of those things McCain was not part of the Republican culture…he was against it. He and Sarah Palin, on some fundamental issues, can bring the GOP back to its roots. Granted, I don’t put enough weight on this to cancel out the “Republican payback” but its enough to reduce the negative, IMHO.
Btw, there are two ways to balance the budget - raise taxes AND reduce spending. McCain has talked considerably about reducing spending…if he will do that is a different story, but that is a valid alternative.
Some good analysis here HP.
I think Luis brings up a good point about your 12 blackness points. On the one hand you’re saying that race doesn’t matter (”racism really isn’t what it used to be”), but then you’re giving him 12 points simply for being black.
I also don’t understand why you’re giving McCain 12 points when you admit that he’s not likely to nominate conservative judges. I assume some of those points are actually minus points against the judgest that Obama would likely choose?
I’d like to hear more about why you trust Palin’s intuition. We all know the homegirl is lacking in the knowledge department, but here you seem to be making an argument for her character over her policies or experience. What is it about her character that appeals to you?
Oso,
True, it does bother me and there probably is a contradiction in my beliefs but read the John McWhorter article - how do you get around it? I guess in the end, what I am trying to say is that his race shows that race does not matter - only in that sense does his race “matter”.
Regarding judges, McCain gets an overall +6 Points in that area (12 - 6) because at the very worst, McCain would pick a moderate justice but Obama, no matter how you slice it, is going to pick another liberal justice. So replacing a liberal justice with a liberal justice is a wash (in Obama’s case) but replacing a liberal justice with, at worst, a moderate justice is a plus (6 points - overall moving the court to the right).
Regarding Palin, it’s not so much a positive for her as it is a negative regarding intellectuals and elites - of which Obama, Biden, and to some extent McCain are. I have a deep distrust of intellectuals. They live sheltered lives and are usually always in position of teacher - which tends to result in a very condescending view of the masses and a sense of god like arrogance. When you mix that in with a desire for political power, you get a dangerous combination. Read this Thomas Sowell review of Eric Hoffer’s (great) book True Believer for a better explanation, here.
Fascinating … because your argument about race is so similar to many arguments people make for affirmative action. (Use race as a factor for university admissions to show that race doesn’t matter in terms of how well students do at university.)
I haven’t had a chance to watch that much footage of Palin, but my impression of her, similar to that of George W. Bush, is that she’s condescending and has a sense of God-like arrogance. That combined with shallow knowledge and experience is a dangerous mixture in my opinion. Obama, on the other hand, strikes me as relatively humble and grounded for someone with such strong intellect and ambition.
I’m curious who you think is a good example of a strong conservative leader who isn’t an elite. Both Bushes, Reagan, and Nixon were all undoubtedly elites.
True, both Bushes, Reagan, and Nixon were all elites - but they were atleast conservative elites, in other words, they atleast professed to an ideology that limited the power of government and therefore their influence in the lives of the masses, making them a better choice than their running mates (liberal elites). I’m not saying this makes them overall okay, just better than liberal elites. A liberal elite is infinitely more dangerous.
Regarding Palin vs. Obama, have you ever heard Palin talk about the masses the way Obama does? Remember, when Obama was in San Francisco (among, one should say, many like minded elites) he said of the masses “It’s not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.” He of course, did not intend his thoughts to be published, making his views seem all the more sincere.
Palin, on the other hand, is so busy being part of and among the masses that she sees the world vastly differently. This does not make her “shallow knowledge and experience”, this just means she has more of a different kind of experience - she has learned from the school of hard knocks, see here.
Regarding affirmative action - my argument against it is twofold, one is the race based nature of it (of which, yes, I am probably violating here) but my more important objection is that it does not work, it both hurts minorities that receive it and the culture around them. In other words, I support taking race into account with Obama for the very same reason I disagree with affirmative action - to improve cultural paradigms and the future prospects of minorities. See more on affirmative action here.
Your not gonna comment about your affirmative action contradiction?
I updated the comment above.
I am now 54 and in my lifetime I have yet to see any satisfactory evidence that one party (while they were in power) turned in a superior performance over the other. I’ve also yet to see any evidence that the election of one particular president or the other either greatly improved the lot of all Americans or brought this country to the brink of disaster. Mostly I see a crappy job by both parties and don’t see any accountability or liability on their respective job performances.
I can only think of term limits as a mechanism to possibly improve Congress’s performance. Perhaps that too will have some kind of secondary effect on the quality of presidential candidates. Other than that I can’t think of any reason to expect an improvement in the nation’s state of affairs after this presidential elections.
I fully expect the polarization between the left and the right to deepen regardless of which presidential candidate is the victor. In fact, I fully expect the ideological warfare to continue unabated on all levels. I fear that we, as a nation, have yet to hit bottom in order to start the climb back to some semblance of civility, reasonable discourse, and higher expectations from our elected representatives.
Come election day I’ll do my responsible civic duty, albeit somewhat unethusiastically.
gsarcs,
You are too young then to have lived through the presidency of LBJ and his “great society”. That is, after all, the last time the United States elected a full blown liberal…and we are still paying for his economic policies today. See one example here. Another example is what welfare did to the black family. See more here.
HispanicPundit better bone-up on his math a 54 year old person did live through the LBJ years. Some of us even benefited from the welfare programs instituted by LBJ, I ate plenty of government cheese and was greatful for it.
Hahaha good catch. I meant “live through” in the sense of being old enough to understand and experience.
For example, I “lived through” the Reagan presidency, but I was too young and too apolitical to remember much of it.
Regarding welfare: I am not completely against welfare. Just wasted government welfare, which much of LBJ’s can be classified as such, in addition to harmful (see here).
So basically, HP, it’s OK that she’s clueless because she has good advisers? Do you feel the same way about Obama? In other words the left shouldn’t be concerned with his lack of experience because he probably has what they would consider to be good advisers?
Why do you say she has good instincts? She doesn’t do press conferences, so we hardly know much about her views. She now has done two interviews and one infomercial with Hannity. The latest completely exposes her as ignorant. Have you seen the Couric interview? Even conservatives are calling for her to step down. She’s that bad. See here (in an article spiked on foxnews).
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6438
Obama’s statement about guns and religion is true. Poor people get stepped on and it drives them to guns and religion. That’s what he meant. I listened to the whole context of the clip. His statement is accurate. It’s being spun in a negative way, and if anything shows that he poorly stated something as John Kerry did (for it before he was against it). But this is a problem for him and not Palin because he actually does interviews. He actually takes questions. Reporters traveling with him are allowed to question him. Not so for Palin, so one would think she would make fewer gaffe’s. Then you watch one of her rare interviews and she makes up for lost time.
I think you just like Republicans and not Democrats, and this is why Palin is good and Biden is bad. Biden is fine if you are a wishy washy on the war Democrat. He’s tested, experienced, smart, and holds good enough positions (if you are a Democrat). If you are a Republican you like Palin on the positions she holds (especially abortion) and that’s about it. She’s not great on economics. Doesn’t know what she’s talking about. Supported the biggest joke earmark going (bridge to nowhere). A degree in journalism which required her to attend multiple schools before she acquired it. Wouldn’t you prefer a smart, qualified person? I think Bush’s Cheney pick was smart. McCain has picked someone that brings very little to the table. And check the latest tracking polls. I think this pick is backfiring.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
Add me to those who can’t fathom the reasons for HP’s enthusiasm for Palin. Even more so, after reading his confusing reasons. (What does the word “elite” mean to HP?)
My aunt Madeline is neither an intellectual, nor an elite, nor a liberal. As best I can tell, that qualifies her for Vice President by the reasoning of some.
What are my Aunt Madeline’s positions on torture, admission of Georgia into NATO, or nuclear energy? Heck if I know. And I don’t know Palin’s either!
Jon,
It’s important to keep in mind that Palin is the VP pick, NOT the presidential pick. This is fundamental to my analysis above.
Granted, again, she doesn’t know alot - but that does not mean she can’t learn, or more importantly be able to handle significantly more years from now if she were to have to step in as president.
What I am saying is that what we know of her NOW does not say otherwise. And one can make the argument that it points in the positive direction. She did fine as mayor and was doing fine as governor.
You support a relatively untested candidate for president yet you have a problem with me supporting a relatively untested candidate for VP? Who is being the partisan one here? Certainly not me.
Sure, Obama now understands economics and foreign policy better…but he has had a year or so to catch up. I can find you article after article of his early gaffes on economics and foreign policy (see for example here and here) where he said stuff he wouldn’t dare to say now - months and months after talking it over with his economic advisors. Why not assume the same with Palin? Especially when we have a stronger record of her past and she has done just fine up to now (see here)?
If we can allow Obama, the truly inexperienced untested candidate to be president of the United States and finish learning on the job, then I don’t see why it would be problematic to do the same for Palin as Vice President.
Atleast with Palin, she knows enough to know when to shut up…not so with Biden, see here, and Biden is supposed to be Obama’s “Foreign Policy Expert”.
Nobody is saying Obama is better overall. I’m asking you, why is Biden a -5 and Palin a +5. Nobody is saying that the whole issue of who you should vote for turns on the VP pick. But why suggest that Obama screwed up with his pick more than McCain such that you give McCain a net +10 on this issue? Is it just that she’s a Republican? If that’s the case, then the whole analysis is kind of pointless. You like Republicans, so you go with them.
And you know I’m not supporting Obama.
Biden just rubs me the wrong way. With all his talk about “paying higher taxes is patriotic” and his blind faith in liberalism…he just seems as fake as they come. Maybe I am getting a taste of how those on the left feel when they are scorned for being unpatriotic for not supporting the Iraq war - but adding pompous language to a political difference hardly ever comes across well.
Regarding Palin…the main thing I like about her was this: “If she were to become VP, and maybe one day President, I believe she has a real chance of reforming the Republican party and bringing it closer to its roots of middle class and everyday working people, bringing a further divide from the elitism of the Democratic party”
It is her reforming mentality that I think can bring real strength to the party now and well into the future. Her middle class background and social views (abortion, guns, etc) strengthen that view and appeals to me at a deeper level (Yes, in some way, probably because I lean Republican).
Reformer, eh? Sounds like a load of crap, man. What is she going to change? She’s ignorant. Is that what you mean with getting away from elitism? She’s like normal Americans in that she’s ignorant? She’s not going to change our trillion dollar per year overseas military expenditures. Is she going to turn off the money printing presses? Is advocating a 400 million dollar bridge for a handful of people paid for by American taxpayers the kind of reform you are looking for? What about Bush’s method of allowing limited media access and basically not taking many questions. She’s doing the same in that regard. Many Republicans call Obama an empty suit. Might be true. If so though, it’s doubly true for Palin. She doesn’t even know her own positions. She hasn’t thought them through. By the time McCain’s people are done with her she’ll be spouting the same rino lines.
For crying out loud man, she was in favor of the big socialization of the banking industry with 700 billion for bankers that made bad decisions and should pay for their own errors. We’ll be more communist than China. Is this the kind of reform you’re looking for?
If that is your standard of reformer then you might as well give up. I’m referring to marginal changes - that’s the most you can hope for in politics, IMHO.
HP,
Come on, admit the real reason you favor Sarah Palin.
It’s because she’s hot, right?
I’ve gotten so used to seeing hot, sexy women on the TV and cable news shows I almost want McCain to be elected too, just so I can see her every day. I wonder if she’s even sexier when she’s angry. Can we have a Vice Presidential debate that include a swimsuit competition?
But in all seriousness, I do have one thing of substance to say…
There’s a reason why your numbers come up almost evenly. It’s because both candidates are overall, quite similar. That said, while I will vote for Obama, I don’t think he’s that much different from McCain. The truth is, if Obama was really an agent of change, he wouldn’t be running as a Democrat, he’d be running as a Green. And if McCain was really a maverick, he wouldn’t go anywhere near the Republican Party, and would instead be running as a Libertarian.
True regarding the political differences between the candidates.
Regarding Palin - I’m not surprised at all, didn’t you know, Republicans have all the hot political candidates, see here.
I guess I’m waiting for Palin to make a dumb comment about Mexicans, otherwise its a toss-up for me at this point. It would be Revenge by Chorizo if I cornered Michelle Malkin.