Global Warming Slows As Carbon Dioxide Rose

The Economist writes:

BETWEEN 1998 and 2013, the Earth’s surface temperature rose at a rate of 0.04°C a decade, far slower than the 0.18°C increase in the 1990s. Meanwhile, emissions of carbon dioxide (which would be expected to push temperatures up) rose uninterruptedly.

Then proceeds to offer a bunch of after the fact explanations but I wonder what environmental model predicted this, a priori? Probably not many.

Economist Bryan Caplan has more here.

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  • I feel some cherry-picking’s going on here. You take one factoid that you like from the article and dismiss everything else as post hoc explanations. Many of the “after the fact” points in the article are discussing measurement issues, essentially saying that the 0.04C rate is too low. Moreover, we’re talking about the weather here. Few things in nature work like billiard balls. Many of the models charting warming have been remarkably accurate, but as within anything, there will be constant revision.

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  • Take a look at the data and you soon recognize why conservatives always pick 1998 as the starting point. A huge outlier due to a combination of max solar output and El Niño, it really caused an unprecedented rise. When in the future we have another similar convergence that creates a dramatic outlier I suppose conservatives will use that as the new starting point. But will people fall for it again? This spin is getting less and less plausible.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#mediaviewer/File:Global_Temperature_Anomaly.svg

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